Tuesday, January 31, 2012

The Elephant's Dream


Economics is a mystical subject, one that even the greatest minds cannot always get right. The world today is experiencing a paradigm change when it comes to the question as to where the economic power actually lies. People everywhere are announcing the shift of power from the glorious west to the BRIC economies. But how much of this paradigm shift is purely speculation?
While Mr. Schwab and the W.E.F build models about Global Redesign Initiatives and the likes of other eminent western economists harp on tunes of the world working together as a community to restore order in the fragile situation the world economy is in today (refer: Europe and even America a while back), most of us simpletons back home just wonder if India will actually be a superpower in the years to come. For some time now we have been hearing optimists say that India is going to rise to new heights and make its way to a superpower for a while now, but how real is this dream? 
Most economic thinkers back home think it is institutional changes that would set India to this path. But how does one bring about these institutional changes, especially to such a schizophrenic economy that our leaders have assiduously worked to keep in such tangles for decades now.  Maybe the likes of Anna Hazare and his intriguing ideas could work as the disruption that the country needs to bring about many of these changes. But jokes aside, what could we do that we assuredly get that superpower position that we have wanted for aeons now.
One thing that needs immediate attention is for our leaders to get their priorities right. Our political class has been battling the grounds of otiose issues right through the year gone by and at this rate I wouldn’t be surprised if we got back to the Hindu growth rate in a couple of years. India Inc as well needs to get its relations right with our leaders in parliament, the current mud-slinging between the two will get us nowhere.
Somehow it is simply difficult to answer a question about India as ‘Incredible India’ truly has so many forces pulling in so many different directions. Even if we compare India to the other BRIC economies you would see a very many differences. Much to the delight of the capitalists in the west, India seems to very confused about its policy towards privatization as well. Whether it is the recent debacle about 100 per cent FDI or just the general residual Nehruvian Socialistic attitude even after liberalization, India all in all seems rather perplexed.  Last weeks Economist had a special report on how a lot of the rising powers today are using a model of State Capitalism where they bring about the best of both worlds, the very cynical report towards this new model being used in the BRIC countries excludes Indian PSUs calling them leftovers from the Licence Raj. Where does that leave us? Neither are we working at efficient levels on the invisible hand nor on the visible one.
I bring up just a couple of issues here, but there are arrays of such questions that need answering.
As a student of economics still, I can’t conclusively say where the elephant is headed but I sure can tell you that the mahud is giving the elephant a very many mixed signals. Where this elephant actually goes only time can tell.

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